Here’s why the stock market is taking Middle East violence in stride
Coming off a brutal September and a rough start to October, it would only seem natural that the warfare in Israel would send the stock market into a deeper spiral. Yet investors Monday chose not to panic, instead taking the market through a seesaw day in which major averages actually posted a modest gain even amid a spike in oil prices and the strong possibility that the violence in the Middle East will only get worse. “Obviously, this is devastating news. You never want to hear about any of this, especially on this order of magnitude,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management. “At the end of the day, tying that to what it means for the S & P 500 in the fourth quarter, that’s a much more difficult exercise.” What could make the difference is how far things could go and how long they could last. Considering the scope of the issues at stake and the severity of the violence, the prospects are daunting. However, none of that is clear now, so markets chose to look through the early developments and focus on more fundamental issues. “It’s all about how we contemplate duration and in the level of escalation, and that’s just not available to us today,” Hogan said. “So, I think the market’s having very much a constructive wait-and-see attitude about what this means for the medium and longer term.” Indeed, both the Dow and the S & P 500 moved solidly into positive territory Monday afternoon, and the tech-focused Nasdaq was higher as well. Not surprisingly, energy stocks on the S & P 500 jumped 3.7%, while industrials and discretionary stocks also posted solid gains. In recent days, the market’s biggest worry has been focused on interest rates, namely how high the Federal Reserve would go and how long it would stay there in its battle against inflation. The bond market was closed Monday for the Columbus Day holiday, but Treasury futures pointed to higher prices, meaning the potential for lower yields when trading resumes Tuesday. Though oil rose about 4%, the dollar was up only modestly against a basket of its global competitors, again reflecting general calm in the markets. One reason some market veterans floated was simply because much of the bad news already has been priced in. Another reason is anticipation of a solid third-quarter earnings season ahead. Finally, while the market often has knee-jerk reactions to geopolitical events, they rarely last unless there are other complicating factors. “When you look back at geopolitical issues, the market looks past them,” said Lindsey Bell, chief market strategist at 248 Ventures. “There are always a lot of moving parts, and I think that just right now, the market is going to look past a geopolitical event, at least at this moment, until we start getting more clarity on how it impacts inflation and other things.” As the week progresses, the market will be able to monitor the situation in Israel while watching early earnings reports and key economic reports, such as Wednesday’s consumer price index as well as Federal Reserve meeting minutes out the same day. “There was exhaustion from the [selling] side,” Bell said. “I like this setup. Earnings season is going to be an easy win for investors.”
